Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets is a next-generation social prediction game with four pricing engines to match any casino's risk appetite. Choose from LMSR (automated market maker), Oracle Bookmaker (Polymarket-fed odds with overround), Manual Bookmaker (casino-set fixed odds with exposure caps), or Parimutuel (zero-risk pool betting).

Every model guarantees a mathematical house edge. Bookmaker models deliver ~5-7% edge through overround (minimum 5%) plus configurable fees. LMSR provides ~3% edge through bet fees and surplus. Parimutuel has zero directional risk with a configurable pool cut. All models support configurable bet fees (casino + platform) and optional win fees on payouts.

Players can cash out positions early — full or partial — with real-time fair-value previews. Set automatic take-profit and stop-loss triggers that execute on every price update. LMSR markets sell shares back; bookmaker models use fair-value calculation with configurable margin. Rate limited to 10 cash-outs per user per 24 hours.

Built-in safety controls protect against financial loss. Per-user-per-market bet limits, maximum payout caps, correlated exposure tracking across market groups, and an emergency kill switch that suspends all betting in one query. Oracle bookmaker markets have a circuit breaker that auto-suspends on >10% price jumps, live oracle verification at bet time (rejects >5% deviation from cached price), TWAP smoothing with polling jitter, and configurable delays for large bets with post-delay re-verification.

The risk dashboard provides real-time exposure by pricing model, high-risk market detection (>80% utilization), correlation group tracking, and recent cash-out reporting. Bettor classification by closing-line value (CLV) identifies sharp, semi-sharp, and recreational players — with optional auto-enforcement of reduced limits for sharp bettors. Prometheus metrics expose counters for safety-check rejections, cash-out executions, circuit breaker trips, and per-market exposure utilization gauges.

Everything is fully customizable. The platform supports both on-chain and off-chain settlement, four pricing models (LMSR, oracle bookmaker, manual bookmaker, parimutuel), custom market categories, geo-targeting, and white-label theming. Whether you need crypto-native markets or fiat-based prediction games, we can tailor the solution to your needs. Contact us to discuss your integration.